MLB Offseason Stock Watch: Dodgers Lead the Pack
As the baseball industry prepares to convene in Orlando, Florida, for the winter meetings, we note that it seems like yesterday that the focus was much farther north, in Toronto. That was where, just over a month ago, the 2025 season reached its crescendo and conclusion with the Los Angeles Dodgers’ thrilling Game 7 win over the Toronto Blue Jays to clinch their second straight World Series crown.
As the focus shifts to every team’s retooling effort for 2026, one thing we already know about next season: It’s going to have a tough act to follow. The early steps toward accomplishing that have already taken place in the form of a handful of trades and free agent signings. While the heavy lifting of this hot stove season still lies ahead, things could really get percolating next week with every team’s chief decision-makers in the same place, at the same time.
How We Ranked the Teams
This Stock Watch is based on a roster-forecasting model that’s built from the neutral-context version of the Steamer projections from FanGraphs.com, consensus prospect grades and World Series/pennant odds in the betting markets. These were used to create a baseline win expectation for each team that served as the basis for 10,000 simulations of the 2026 schedule, yielding our win forecasts and postseason probabilities.
Team Breakdowns
The Dodgers have done a little roster pruning and a lot of waiting for the market to take shape. Their lineup is getting pretty old, and you’d like to see a little more youth injected into the mix. Some of that is keeping opportunities open for Dalton Rushing and, later, Josue De Paula and Zyhir Hope, among others. But signing Kyle Tucker would boost the outfield, and as he’s only 28, he would make the Dodgers a little younger.
The Braves have been active on the margins with low-level trades and waiver claims. They will have a hectic spring training when it comes to sorting out all of their depth options. The trade of glove-first Nick Allen for utility player Mauricio Dubon, in conjunction with Ha-Seong Kim’s decision to opt out, threw the shortstop position into even more flux than it already was.
The Yankees have a lot of work to do but obviously, given this ranking, they are building up from a strong baseline. On the pitching side, they need to add relief options, perhaps even at the back of the pen if they don’t want to ride with either David Bednar or Camilo Doval as a pure ninth-inning hammer.
The Mets need at least one everyday outfielder, so Tucker and Bellinger make sense. If the Twins are willing to part with Byron Buxton, he would look good in center field. The bullpen needs more, with a possible reunion with Diaz the obvious but pricey option.
The Blue Jays aren’t messing around this offseason. After adding Dylan Cease and Cody Ponce to a deep rotation, the Blue Jays’ hot stove campaign is already sizzling. Like all teams, the Blue Jays can stand to add in the margins in terms of bullpen help and general depth.
The Mariners got out ahead of the free agent market by re-upping with first baseman Josh Naylor on a five-year contract that solidifies what has long been a problem position for Seattle. Eugenio Suarez hit free agency, which opens up the need for a power bat in the Seattle lineup.
The young Brewers are well situated and can hope for organic improvement from maturing players, as long as they don’t start straddling the fence between winning now and sustainability. The time to strike is now, especially with Woodruff back in the fold to pair with Freddy Peralta.
Mid-Tier Teams
The Phillies haven’t done much, but there has been a good bit of hand-wringing by their always impatient fans. There’s a Schwarber-shaped hole in the Phillies’ lineup and a J.T. Realmuto-shaped void behind the plate.
The Red Sox traded for starting pitcher Sonny Gray. The lineup, sans Alex Bregman, has plenty of options, but there’s a gaping need for a legitimate power bat, or two. Schwarber would be an ideal fit, but you could make an argument for a short deal involving Suarez as well.
The Tigers need to not trade Tarik Skubal. That’s easy enough to do. Signing him to a fat extension also would be nice. Otherwise, what are we doing here? Skubal can be a free agent after the 2026 season, and the Tigers’ payroll space is largely wide open starting in 2027.
Rebuilding Teams
The Astros acquired infielder Nick Allen for Mauricio Dubon and signed starting pitcher Ryan Weiss. On the same day the Blue Jays signed the reconstituted Cody Ponce, the Astros inked his Hanwha Eagles teammate, Weiss.
The Cubs reworked the contract of starter Colin Rea, re-signed starter Shota Imanaga, and signed reliever Phil Maton. The Cubs are in pretty good shape on the position player front, assuming prospects Owen Caissie and Kevin Alcantara are ready for prime time.
The Padres declined an option on last year’s Cody Ponce — Kyle Hart — then signed him back. They also added veteran right-handed reliever Craig Stammen. The Padres need a power bat and rotation help.
Teams to Watch
The Royals re-signed catcher Salvador Perez, tendered a contract to and re-signed infielder Jonathan India, and traded for outfielder Kameron Misner and starter Mason Black. The Royals’ new deal with Perez probably means the future Hall of Fame catcher will probably finish his career with the club.
The Orioles traded starting pitcher Grayson Rodriguez for outfielder Taylor Ward, traded for reliever Andrew Kittredge, and signed closer Ryan Helsley.
