NFL Divisional Round: Odds, Picks, and Analysis
The NFL wild-card round was nothing short of thrilling, with several games coming down to the wire. As we head into the divisional round, the top seeds in the AFC and NFC, the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks, respectively, will finally join the action after earning first-round byes. In this article, we’ll break down the odds, picks, and analysis for each game, featuring expert insights from Matt Bowen, Pamela Maldonado, and Seth Walder.
The AFC will see the Broncos host the visiting Buffalo Bills, who narrowly escaped a wild finish against the Jacksonville Jaguars, with four touchdowns scored in a back-and-forth fourth quarter. Meanwhile, the New England Patriots will host the Houston Texans after shutting down the Los Angeles Chargers. In the NFC, the Seahawks will host the San Francisco 49ers, who staged an impressive comeback against the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles, scoring the final 13 points to secure the win. The Chicago Bears will host the Los Angeles Rams, who rallied past the Carolina Panthers thanks to a Matthew Stafford touchdown pass with just 38 seconds left.
Super Bowl LX Championship Odds
As we move forward in the playoffs, it’s essential to keep an eye on the Super Bowl LX championship odds. The current favorites to win it all will be determined by their performance in the divisional round. With the Broncos and Seahawks entering the fray, the competition is about to get fiercer. According to DraftKings Sportsbook, the odds are subject to change, so be sure to check the latest updates.
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BUF-DEN | SF-SEA | HOU-NE | LAR-CHI
(6) Buffalo Bills -1.5 at (1) Denver Broncos
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (CBS)
Line movement: Opened Broncos -1.5
Money Line: Bills (-118); Broncos (-102)
Total: 46.5; Opened: 46.5
FPI favorite: Broncos by 0.3 with a 50% probability to win the game outright
Betting notes
The Bills beat the Broncos 31-7 in the wild-card round last season, but that game was played in Buffalo.
The Broncos are 3-9 against the spread as favorites this season.
(6) San Francisco 49ers at (1) Seattle Seahawks -7
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (FOX)
Money Line: Seahawks (-275); 49ers (+275)
Total: 45.5; Opened: 46.5
FPI favorite: Seahawks by 3.7 with a 60.0% probability to win the game outright
Walder’s First Bet: Total points UNDER 46.5 (-110)
Seth Walder’s analysis highlights the significance of Sam Darnold’s performance, which has been inconsistent since Week 11. With the Seahawks’ ability to run the ball effectively, Walder expects a lower-scoring game, making the under a promising bet.
Moody’s First Bet: Jaxon Smith-Njigba 100+ receiving yards (+137)
Moody’s pick focuses on Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s potential to excel against the 49ers’ defense, which may be shorthanded. With the Seahawks’ reliance on their top receiver, Smith-Njigba’s confidence after a strong performance in Week 18 could lead to another impressive outing.
(5) Houston Texans at (2) New England Patriots -3
Sunday, 3 p.m. ET (ABC, ESPN)
Money Line: Patriots (-155), Texans (+130)
Total: 41.5; Opened: 41.5
Bowen’s first bet: Total points UNDER 41.5 (-105)
Matt Bowen’s analysis emphasizes the strength of both the Houston and New England defenses, which could lead to a low-scoring game. With both teams’ ability to dictate the outcome through their pass rush and coverage, the under seems like a safe bet.
Betting notes
The Patriots went 12-5 ATS in the regular season, tied for the best record in the NFL. Overs went 11-6 in Patriots games, tied for the second highest over percentage.
New England signal-caller Drake Maye is 9-3 ATS in his career as a favorite, including the playoffs (all this season).
(5) Los Angeles Rams -3.5 at (2) Chicago Bears
Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET (NBC)
Money Line: Rams (-192); Bears (+160)
Total: 51.5; Opened: 51.5
FPI favorite: Rams by 4.4 with a 62% probability to win the game outright
Bowen’s First Bet: Total points OVER 51.5 (-110)
Matt Bowen’s analysis highlights the high-scoring potential of the Rams and Bears, with both teams featuring top-10 scoring offenses. With the playcallers’ ability to create explosive plays, Bowen expects a high-scoring game, making the over a promising bet.
Maldonado’s First Bet: Total points OVER 51.5 (-110)
Pamela Maldonado’s pick emphasizes the potential for volatility in this game, with both quarterbacks capable of producing quick scores and mistakes. With the Rams’ aggressive approach and the Bears’ willingness to push throws, Maldonado expects a high-scoring game, making the over a viable option.
