The Dangers of Betting on Social Media Influencers in Boxing
As someone who covers the world of gambling, it’s essential to approach betting advice with caution. However, with the holiday season in full swing, I’d like to offer a friendly warning to the American betting public: beware of betting on social media influencers turned boxers, especially when they’re up against seasoned professionals. The recent fight between Jake Paul and Anthony Joshua serves as a prime example of this.
The odds were heavily stacked against Paul, with DraftKings listing him as a 10-1 underdog. Despite this, an astonishing 90% of bets placed and 90% of the money wagered on the fight were in favor of Paul. This led to a potentially disastrous scenario for the sportsbook, which could have lost nearly $100 million if Paul had pulled off the upset. Fortunately for DraftKings, Joshua’s sixth-round knockout victory saved the day, but it’s a stark reminder of the risks involved in betting on inexperienced fighters.
Johnny Avello, director of sports operations at DraftKings, expressed relief at the outcome, stating, “We were happy with the outcome — the book fared well, and it was great to see such strong interest in boxing.” However, this sentiment is not shared by the many bettors who lost out on their wagers. The fight drew a significant amount of attention, with prediction market Kalshi reporting over $74 million in volume, including a substantial $183,954 bet on Paul by one unfortunate customer.
This isn’t the first time the betting public has been burned by backing a social media influencer turned boxer. Seven years ago, Conor McGregor’s highly publicized fight against Floyd Mayweather saw professional bettors backing the experienced boxer, while the general public sided with the UFC star. The result was a resounding victory for Mayweather, who wore down McGregor and eventually knocked him out. It seems that the betting public didn’t learn from this lesson, as the same pattern emerged in the Paul-Joshua fight.
Caesars Sportsbook reported that the fight handle was comparable to a regular season college football game, with only 20% of the bets placed on the College Football Playoff opener between Alabama and Oklahoma. Joey Feazel of Caesars Sportsbook noted, “The fight handle was comparable to North Carolina State and Memphis from earlier in the day. A few chunky wagers [on Joshua] came in by the sharps who knew how much of a mismatch on paper the fight should have been.”
High-stakes bettor Christopher Dierkes, head of trading for sports prediction exchange Novig, took a different approach, risking $1,077,044 on Joshua to win. He believed the price on Joshua, even as high as it was, was still a bargain, given the significant mismatch between the two fighters. Dierkes’ gamble paid off, earning him a $157,549 profit. When asked about his thought process, he stated, “The real risk in my opinion was the rig factor, which I thought was a possibility — it is boxing, of course, crazier things have happened. But I did not weigh it very high considering Joshua was very popular, already very rich, and unlikely to ruin his reputation for Jake Paul.”
NFL Odds and Ends
The Kansas City Chiefs’ loss to the Tennessee Titans as 3-point favorites marked their eighth loss this season in games where they were the betting favorite. This ties them with the 2014 New Orleans Saints, 2003 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and 1983 New York Jets for the most losses as a favorite in a single season in the Super Bowl era. The Chiefs have also failed to cover the spread in seven straight games, tied with the Buccaneers for the longest active streak.
The Carolina Panthers’ upset victory over the Buccaneers as small underdogs notched their eighth outright win of the season as underdogs, tying Washington in 2015 as the team with the most wins as an underdog in a season. Meanwhile, the Seattle Seahawks’ comeback win over the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday produced the second-largest win of the season for bettors with Caesars Sportsbook, according to Feazel.
College Football Odds and Ends
Alabama begins the week as a consensus 7-point underdog against No. 1 Indiana in the Rose Bowl on Jan. 1. The Crimson Tide have not closed as at least a 6-point underdog since the 2008 SEC Championship Game against Florida. Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer has won 10 of his 14 games outright as an underdog in his coaching career, the best winning percentage of any coach who has been an underdog in at least 10 games since the 1978 FBS/FCS split, according to ESPN research.
College football quarterfinal lines are available via DraftKings Sportsbook, with the following odds subject to change:
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