NFL MVP Race Heats Up: Stafford and Maye Lead the Pack
The NFL MVP race is reaching its climax, with two quarterbacks standing out from the rest: Matthew Stafford and Drake Maye. As the season enters its final stretch, these two players have emerged as the top contenders for the award, with Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, and Trevor Lawrence also in the running. To get a better understanding of the current state of the MVP race, we spoke with ESPN Betting reporter Doug Greenberg and ESPN Betting Analyst Pamela Maldonado.
According to Greenberg, Matthew Stafford is currently the favorite to win the MVP award, with -360 odds at DraftKings. The Los Angeles Rams quarterback has been consistently excellent throughout the season, leading the NFL in passing yards and passing touchdowns. Stafford’s odds have been steadily improving since the start of the campaign, when he was listed at +3500. He became the odds-on favorite in late November and has maintained that position, despite a brief hiccup.
However, Drake Maye, the young quarterback from the New England Patriots, is still a strong contender for the award. Maye was the odds-on favorite as recently as early December and is currently listed at +300. Bookmakers are keeping a close eye on Maye, as he has been a popular bet among fans and could potentially overtake Stafford in the final stretch.
Inside the Betting Market
At BetMGM, Maye is the largest liability in the MVP market, while at DraftKings, sportsbook director Johnny Avello says that Maye is considered a “pretty good loss” and that the book is “rooting for Stafford” or any other candidate. Avello notes that his team was quick to adjust the odds on Maye, Stafford, and other players as necessary, but that bettors couldn’t get enough of the young quarterback and the resurgence of the Patriots.
“We couldn’t stop the Maye train, we just couldn’t,” Avello told ESPN. “And it’s like that not only for Maye, but it’s the Patriots in general. I mean, they’ve been bet all year long to win the division, to win the Super Bowl, win the conference. We’ve got money on them everywhere.”
Other Contenders
While the MVP competition has mostly been a two-man race, there are three other players who could still make a push for the award: Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, and Trevor Lawrence. Allen, the reigning MVP, has followed up with another strong campaign, while Herbert’s Chargers and Lawrence’s Jaguars have outside shots at the conference’s No. 1 playoff seed.
“MVP doesn’t go just isolated,” Avello said. “I think it needs to be an entire team effort, at least, that’s the way it’s been. You just can’t have this tremendous year and the team’s terrible.”
Stafford or Maye: How to Bet the MVP Race
According to Maldonado, the betting market reflects the gap between Stafford and Maye, with Stafford listed as a heavy favorite and Maye priced as a viable challenger rather than a true co-favorite. This split suggests that voters view Stafford as the rightful leader, while Maye needs help and a loud finish to flip the script.
Both Stafford and Maye are still playing meaningful games down the stretch, but that neutralizes urgency as a differentiator, leaving production, responsibility, and impact as key points. On those fronts, Stafford still leads.
Prediction: Stafford holds serve. Even if the Patriots win their division and the Rams don’t, it gives Maye a narrative boost, but on its own, it isn’t enough to overcome Stafford’s clear edge in scores, volume, and offensive impact unless Stafford stumbles.
The odds reflect where this race truly stands, with the man who flirted with retirement on pace to break his passing touchdown record (41), having his best season since winning Super Bowl LVI.
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