Impact of Recent Free Agent Deals on the Market
The market for free agent hitters got a significant boost last week at the winter meetings when 32-year-old designated hitter Kyle Schwarber agreed to a five-year, $150 million contract with the Philadelphia Phillies, followed by 31-year-old first baseman Pete Alonso getting a five-year, $155 million deal from the Baltimore Orioles a day later. These contracts have shown the value of top one-dimensional players this offseason, with teams investing in them primarily for their batting skills.
Schwarber and Alonso ranked No. 8 and No. 9, respectively, on ESPN’s ranking of the top 50 free agents heading into the winter. Although neither player is a major threat on the bases or defensively, they still managed to secure long-term deals that will pay them $30 million annually well into their 30s. Since their signing, there has been a temporary lull at the top of the free agent market for hitters, as some agents might be reevaluating their strategies and considering what these deals mean for more well-rounded players available this winter.
Four players, in particular, are expected to benefit from the recent deals: infielder Bo Bichette, third baseman Alex Bregman, first baseman/outfielder Cody Bellinger, and outfielder Kyle Tucker. According to an agent not associated with any of these players, “It’s the first thing I’m doing if I’m in the room. Reminding everyone how old those guys are and what my player can do that they can’t.” These four hitters might also do well this winter because next year’s free agent hitting class is not expected to be strong, with the Cubs’ Seiya Suzuki, the Blue Jays’ George Springer, and the Orioles’ Taylor Ward likely to be the best of the bunch.
Bo Bichette
FA ranking: No. 7
Bichette will be 28 on Opening Day, making him the youngest of this group. Although he was limited to 139 games in 2025 due to a knee injury in September, he finished the season with 3.8 fWAR and missed the first two rounds of the postseason before returning for the World Series. Bichette is one of the best contact hitters in the sport and plays in the middle of the diamond, even if he doesn’t finish his career as a shortstop. The most recent comp for his free agency might be San Francisco Giants shortstop Willy Adames, who signed a seven-year, $182 million contract last offseason.
ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel originally projected Bichette’s contract to be five years, $130 million, but has updated it to five years, $150 million, assuming a long-term deal versus a shorter one with opt-outs. Bichette’s ability to play in the middle of the diamond, combined with his batting skills, makes him an attractive option for teams looking to invest in a well-rounded player.
Alex Bregman
FA ranking: No. 4
Bregman, also limited due to an injury in 2025, appeared in just 114 games but has played in at least 155 games five times in his career. Before his fWAR fell to 3.5 last season, he had posted at least 4.0 WAR in each of the previous three seasons. He’s also just one year removed from winning a Gold Glove at third base. Bregman has been on base over 35% of the time each year over the latter half of his career while striking out more than 90 times just once, in 2017.
According to a front office executive, “His eye at the plate is underrated. Look at his walk-to-strikeout totals. That should age well.” The seven-year, $175 million deal Marcus Semien signed entering his age-31 season is a good starting point when looking for comps. Bregman might not get the same length that Semien received, but his annual salary should easily beat the $25 million per year Semien is getting. McDaniel’s original projection for Bregman was five years, $160 million, but he has updated it to five years, $170 million, or six years to lower the average annual value (AAV).
Cody Bellinger
FA ranking: No. 3
Bellinger is the only one of the four who played a full season in 2025, appearing in 152 games for the Yankees, his highest total since 2018. Coming off a 4.9 fWAR season, he’s primed to cash in. According to the executive, “Perfect fit for him in New York. Everyone thought he would hit a lot of home runs there, and he did.” Bellinger’s ability to play first base as well as the outfield, and at a high level anywhere he plays, adds value to his résumé that Schwarber, Alonso, and the others lack.
Brandon Nimmo’s eight-year, $162 million contract is a good starting point for Bellinger as an outfielder. Nimmo signed that before the 2023 season after producing a 5.5 fWAR season. McDaniel’s original projection for Bellinger was six years, $165 million, but he has updated it to six years, $180 million. Bellinger’s versatility and batting skills make him an attractive option for teams looking to invest in a well-rounded player.
Kyle Tucker
FA ranking: No. 1
Tucker, widely viewed as the top player in this winter’s class, has also dealt with injuries the past two seasons, but they were considered fluky. He compiled 4.5 fWAR despite his thumb injury last season and 4.2 fWAR in just 78 games the previous year. His 2024 performance projected out to nearly a 10-WAR season if he had been healthy. According to the executive, “It goes without saying that when he’s healthy, Tucker is one of the best hitters in the league. Pair him with other good hitters like he had in Houston, and he’s even better.”
Comparing Tucker’s free agency to Juan Soto’s last year isn’t outrageous because of the hitters’ ability to take walks and not strike out. Tucker committed to swinging at better pitches a couple of years ago, and the results have come: His 1.00 walk-to-strikeout percentage over the past two seasons is in line with Soto, and just behind Luis Arraez for best in MLB. McDaniel’s original projection for Tucker was 11 years, $418 million, and he has updated it to 11 years, $418 million, with potential deferrals. Tucker’s rare combination of batting skills, speed, and health makes him an attractive option for teams looking to invest in a top player.
