Value in Sports Betting: A Weekly Exploration
Value is value, no matter where — or how — you find it. In the world of sports betting, identifying value is key to success. Each week, our team of experts, including Ben Solak, Seth Walder, and Matt Bowen, will share their insights and picks, aiming to find value in various aspects of sports betting. With diverse backgrounds and approaches, they will analyze games, players, and statistics to provide readers with informed decisions.
Ben Solak, with his expertise in player evaluation and X’s and O’s, will look for edges in team performances and player matchups. Seth Walder, relying on statistical models, will identify plus-expected value bets. Matt Bowen, a former NFL safety, will utilize his understanding of the league and tape study to predict positive matchups and game winners. Their weekly picks will cover a range of bet types, from spreads and money lines to totals and defensive player props.
Week 18 Picks and Analysis
The final week of the NFL season brings exciting matchups and opportunities for value. Our experts have analyzed the games and provided their picks for Week 18. The Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears game, with the Bears favored by 2.5 points, is one such matchup. Matt Bowen expects a heavy run approach from the Lions, which could lead to a Chicago cover. The Cincinnati Bengals, favored by 7.5 points over the Cleveland Browns, is another game of interest. Ben Solak notes the improvement of the Bengals’ defense and the challenges the Browns’ offense may face without rookie TE Harold Fannin Jr.
The Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants game, with an over/under of 50.5, is expected to be a high-scoring affair. Matt Bowen believes the over will hit, given the defensive struggles of both teams. The Los Angeles Rams, favored by 7.5 points over the Arizona Cardinals, is another game where our experts see value. Ben Solak likes the Rams, even if the game becomes meaningless for seeding, as coach Sean McVay wants a confidence-boosting win.
Defensive Props and Player Analysis
Seth Walder’s defensive props include the Chiefs D/ST to score an anytime touchdown at +500. With the Raiders likely to struggle, the Chiefs’ defense may have opportunities for a score. The offensive player props, such as Riley Leonard over 18.5 completions and Trevor Lawrence over 246.5 passing yards, are also analyzed. Our experts provide their reasoning and insights, considering factors like team performances, player injuries, and game scripts.
The table below summarizes the best bets record for each expert, providing a snapshot of their performance throughout the season.
| Expert | Category | Record | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Solak | Spread | 6-9-1 | -2.7 |
| Ben Solak | Moneyline | 0-3 | -3.0 |
| Ben Solak | Total | 3-5 | -2.2 |
| Seth Walder | Sacks | 73-58-9 | +33.4 |
| Seth Walder | Tackles | 52-34 | +13.0 |
| Matt Bowen | Spread | 7-7 | -0.6 |
| Matt Bowen | Total | 7-3 | +3.4 |
Offensive Player Props and Game Predictions
Our experts have also analyzed offensive player props, such as Trevor Lawrence’s passing yards and Riley Leonard’s completions. The table below summarizes their picks and analysis.
The final week of the NFL season offers numerous opportunities for value in sports betting. By analyzing team performances, player matchups, and statistical trends, our experts provide readers with informed decisions to make the most of their betting experience. Remember to always bet responsibly and within your means.
For more sports betting analysis and picks, follow our experts on social media and tune in to their weekly podcasts. Stay up-to-date with the latest news, trends, and insights in the world of sports betting.
