Introduction to Wimbledon 2025: The Dark Horses to Watch
As the tennis world gears up for Wimbledon 2025, all eyes are on top contenders like Carlos Alcaraz and Aryna Sabalenka. However, the true excitement often lies in the underdogs – the dark horses who can disrupt the field and make unexpected runs through the draw. The All England Club has a long history of surprises, particularly in the women’s draw, where upsets and breakout performances are a recurring theme. With the tournament set to begin on June 30, several under-the-radar competitors are worth keeping an eye on, given their potential for breakthrough performances and the value they offer in terms of odds.
These players, while not as heavily favored as the top seeds, have the skills, experience, and recent form that suggest they could outperform expectations. Their ability to adapt to the grass court, a surface known for its unpredictability, will be crucial. The grass court season is brief and demanding, with form from clay courts not always translating well. Therefore, the capacity to adjust and thrive on grass will be a decisive factor in determining who among these dark horses can make a deep run in the tournament.
Madison Keys: A Grass-Court Veteran with a Strong Resume
Madison Keys is no stranger to the big stage, having been a two-time Wimbledon quarterfinalist and a Grand Slam finalist. She boasts one of the most impressive grass-court resumes in the draw, with a career grass win rate of 73%. Priced at 25/1 to win, Keys offers exceptional value for an experienced contender. Her powerful serve and flat groundstrokes are particularly well-suited to grass, making her a formidable opponent. Despite a fourth-round retirement in 2024, Keys’ past performances indicate resilience and the ability to go deep into the tournament if she remains fit.
Keys’ experience and skill set make her a compelling choice for those looking for an underdog with the potential to make a late surge in the tournament. Her understanding of the grass court and her ability to perform under pressure are significant advantages that could carry her into the second week and beyond.
Joao Fonseca: The Teenage Talent with a Fearless Approach
At 40/1, Brazilian teenager Joao Fonseca is one of the more intriguing picks in the men’s draw. Although untested at the Grand Slam level, Fonseca has garnered attention with his unique blend of athleticism and fearless play. Grass courts can often neutralize raw power, but Fonseca’s ability to move forward and finish at the net makes him a compelling long-shot pick in the Wimbledon odds. His attacking instincts and versatility could allow him to thrive on a surface that rewards improvisation and aggression.
Fonseca’s youth may also serve as an advantage in early rounds against older, higher-seeded players. His ability to adapt and learn quickly will be crucial in navigating the challenges of a best-of-five format. While much of the ATP field relies on baseline dominance, Fonseca’s willingness to take risks and play aggressively could set him apart and make him a dark horse to watch.
Qinwen Zheng: A Breakout Waiting to Happen
With odds of 33/1, Qinwen Zheng is another player who has yet to peak at Wimbledon but possesses the weapons to do so. At just 21, she has already cracked the top 10 and carries a dangerous combination of power and precision. Although her grass-court record may seem underwhelming at 7–16, Zheng has continued to develop her all-court game, making her a potential disruptor in the draw.
A strong serve and forehand can be lethal on the quick grass, and her athleticism helps her cover the net when needed. With experience gained and expectations still modest, Zheng could emerge as one of the draw’s key disruptors. Her ability to balance power with precision and her growing experience on different surfaces make her a compelling underdog story in the making.
Matteo Berrettini: Former Finalist Seeking Redemption
Matteo Berrettini’s story at Wimbledon is one of near misses, having been a finalist in 2021. He has dealt with injury setbacks that have kept him from replicating that form. Yet, at 40/1, the Italian’s potential upside is undeniable. His booming serve and forehand-heavy game are tailor-made for grass. If his fitness holds, he can bulldoze through early rounds with relative ease.
Despite flying under the radar in recent months, Berrettini’s experience on this surface makes him a dangerous presence. His grass-court win percentage remains among the highest for active players outside the top 20, highlighting just how tricky an opponent he can be, especially for those returning from clay-centric preparation. Berrettini’s ability to dominate on his serve and take control of points with his forehand makes him a dark horse with the potential to make a deep run.
Naomi Osaka: A Four-Time Major Champion on the Comeback Path
Naomi Osaka may be better known for her hard-court dominance, but her presence in the Wimbledon field at 33/1 is notable. After time away from the tour, Osaka has returned with renewed focus and improved physicality. Her grass court record is limited, yet her flat, penetrating groundstrokes can be especially effective on this surface when matched with a strong serve.
More importantly, her Grand Slam pedigree makes her a psychological threat to any top seed. If she finds rhythm in the opening rounds, Osaka has the skillset to outperform expectations and possibly mount a serious campaign. Her experience in high-pressure situations and her ability to rise to the occasion make her a compelling underdog story, especially considering her odds.
Jakub Mensik: The Czech Surprise in the Men’s Draw
Another 40/1 entry, 18-year-old Jakub Mensik has started to turn heads with his maturity and consistency. His transition from junior success to the senior circuit has been smooth, and Wimbledon presents a chance to accelerate that rise. Mensik’s style isn’t overly flashy, but his adaptability and baseline discipline make him a player who can grind down higher-ranked opponents.
Grass courts often reward clean ball striking and smart positioning, two areas where Mensik has shown poise beyond his years. While a title run may be a stretch, a quarterfinal appearance would not be shocking. Mensik’s ability to navigate the challenges of the grass court and his growing experience against top-level competition make him an interesting dark horse in the men’s draw.
Belinda Bencic: The Forgotten Contender
Belinda Bencic, also priced at 33/1, enters Wimbledon under the radar but brings with her a wealth of experience and a skillset that translates well to grass. Her compact strokes and early ball timing help neutralize big hitters. Bencic has consistently made second-week runs in Grand Slams and won Olympic gold in 2021.
On a surface where movement and timing are paramount, Bencic’s smart court positioning and efficient play style could lift her above more erratic players. With a favorable draw, she has the tools to return to the semifinals or better. Bencic’s experience and ability to perform on big stages make her a dark horse with significant potential for a deep run in the tournament.
Taylor Fritz: Underrated American Firepower
Though often overshadowed by flashier contemporaries, Taylor Fritz has quietly compiled an impressive grass record, with a career win rate that supports a deeper Wimbledon run. At 33/1, the American offers value for bettors seeking a consistent performer. Fritz reached the Wimbledon quarterfinals in 2022 and has shown increased confidence in 2025.
His flat serve and inside-out forehand give him a strong 1-2 punch, and he’s added more net play to his arsenal. With stamina and experience on his side, he may outlast some of the tournament’s more high-profile names in marathon matches. Fritz’s ability to adapt to the grass court and his growing experience in handling the pressures of a Grand Slam make him a compelling underdog story.
Jasmine Paolini: The Underdog Who’s Been Here Before
Italian Jasmine Paolini was a finalist at Roland-Garros and Wimbledon in 2024, yet she enters this year’s edition at a long 50/1. Her results in 2025 have been modest, but Paolini has already demonstrated she can thrive on both clay and grass.
Her ability to construct points and her movement make her a frustrating opponent. She lacks raw power but compensates with intelligence and precision. If she builds momentum early, she could once again defy the odds and repeat her deep run. Paolini’s experience in navigating the challenges of a Grand Slam and her ability to perform under pressure make her a dark horse with significant potential for an upset.
Why These Names Matter
The grass court season is brief and often brutal, with form from clay rarely translating directly. Adaptation becomes a decisive factor, and the ability to adjust to the grass court’s unique demands will separate the contenders from the pretenders. While top seeds dominate the headlines, Wimbledon’s enduring appeal lies in its unpredictability and the potential for underdogs to make their mark.
These dark horses, each with their unique strengths and experiences, embody the spirit of Wimbledon’s unpredictability. They offer a compelling narrative of potential
